Jashore
- Wheat area
- 1,218 ha
- Production
- 4,630 t
01 / The question
What a harvest
cannot tell us
A harvest may be sold, kept for food or used to repay a loan. The next planting depends on what remains.
That calls for a household account alongside the crop figures: cash and debts, usable land and equipment, and the needs of the people who farm.
Circle area · wheat area index10050One circle per crop year
Circle area represents recorded wheat area (first year = 100). Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics agricultural yearbooks, assembled by Cultivera. Read the annual series · Method and limits
02 / The crop record
Wheat on
shrinking ground
BBS records show higher wheat yields on less land in Jashore and Kushtia. Total production was lower in 2024–25 than in 2003–04.
Less wheat land. Higher yields. Lower output.
- Wheat area
- 43.2
- Recorded yield
- 164.3
- Output
- 71.0
Outline: first-year baseline.
Filled rectangle: final-year record.
Width: area index · height: yield index · rectangle area: output index.
Area × yield ÷ 100 = output
43.2 × 164.3 ÷ 100 ≈ 71.0
Combined district crop records; rounded indices. Household income and wealth are outside this measure.
Wheat areaRecorded yield
Indexed wheat area and recorded yield, 2003–04 to 2024–25Wheat area falls from 100 to 43.2 while recorded yield rises from 100 to 164.3. The marked area drop is in 2016–17. Timing alone does not establish a causal effect of wheat blast. All 22 observations appear in the following table.
Timing alone does not establish a causal effect of wheat blast.
Read all 22 annual observations
| Crop year | Area | Yield | Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003–04 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2004–05 | 90.1 | 65.3 | 58.8 |
| 2005–06 | 77.2 | 72.0 | 55.6 |
| 2006–07 | 65.9 | 84.0 | 55.4 |
| 2007–08 | 62.2 | 105.1 | 65.3 |
| 2008–09 | 60.6 | 99.6 | 60.4 |
| 2009–10 | 50.4 | 111.1 | 56.0 |
| 2010–11 | 54.0 | 120.8 | 65.2 |
| 2011–12 | 54.4 | 142.1 | 77.3 |
| 2012–13 | 68.6 | 138.0 | 94.7 |
| 2013–14 | 67.9 | 132.5 | 89.9 |
| 2014–15 | 62.8 | 141.5 | 88.9 |
| 2015–16 | 62.7 | 128.7 | 80.7 |
| 2016–17 | 28.2 | 156.0 | 44.0 |
| 2017–18 | 29.5 | 168.4 | 49.6 |
| 2018–19 | 31.1 | 156.3 | 48.6 |
| 2019–20 | 38.4 | 166.5 | 63.9 |
| 2020–21 | 38.7 | 168.7 | 65.2 |
| 2021–22 | 37.8 | 184.6 | 69.8 |
| 2022–23 | 43.5 | 170.2 | 74.0 |
| 2023–24 | 44.9 | 184.1 | 82.8 |
| 2024–25 | 43.2 | 164.3 | 71.0 |
Source: BBS agricultural yearbooks · Cultivera assembly. Download the source series (CSV) · Method and limits
03 / The Geography
Two districts behind
the wheat figures
Jashore and Kushtia provide the district records used in this wheat series.
2024–25 district records
Kushtia
- Wheat area
- 12,033 ha
- Production
- 44,451 t
Source: BBS Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics 2025. Inspect district records (CSV) · Reading Room
04 / The Household Account
When spending
outstrips income
In PPRC’s May 2025 national survey, average spending exceeded average income for the bottom and middle income groups. These households are not linked to the wheat record.
Bottom 40%
Tk2,506 expenditure above income
Middle 40%
Tk909 expenditure above income
Top 20%
Tk7,733 income above expenditure
Differences between group means are not every household’s deficit, savings or retained capital. Subgroup sample sizes and uncertainty intervals are not supplied alongside the cited figures.
19.8% of households reported a financial crisis during May 2024–April 2025. This is a separate national survey result, not a rate for the wheat growers.
PPRC, Economic Dynamics and Mood at Household Level in Mid-2025, slides 17 and 41. Fieldwork: 8–31 May 2025; 8,067 completed interviews. Presentation: 25 August 2025. Survey extract (CSV) · Source notes
05 / Waiting
Waiting has
a price
A better price later must cover holding costs and any crop that can no longer be sold.
The calculation below is a worked example, not a price forecast.
≈Tk14.74per kg needed later to match Tk10 a kg today
Selling now earns Tk10 per kilogram. Carrying the crop adds Tk4 per original kilogram, a cash target of Tk1,400 for the 100 kilogram lot. An assumed loss of 5 kilograms spreads that Tk1,400 over 95 kilograms instead of 100, adding about Tk0.74. The later price must reach about Tk14.74 per kilogram.
- Sell nowHarvest price
- Carrying costTk400 ÷ 100 kg
- Physical lossTk1,400 over 95 kg, not 100
- Needed laterTk1,400 ÷ 95 kg
The lot1 square = 1 kg
- 95 kg left to sell later
- 5 kg assumed lost while waiting
Source: Cultivera illustrative worked example. Values per kg are rounded; the sums below use whole taka.
How the sums work
- 01 · Sell today
100 kg × Tk10/kg = Tk1,000
The 100 kg lot would bring in Tk1,000 if sold at harvest.
- 02 · Carry
Tk1,000 + Tk400 = Tk1,400
Matching that sale after an assumed Tk400 carrying cost requires Tk1,400 in proceeds.
- 03 · Physical loss
100 kg − 5 kg = 95 kg
An assumed 5% loss leaves 95 kg to bring in the same Tk1,400.
- 04 · Break-even
Tk1,400 ÷ 95 kg ≈ Tk14.74/kg
Each remaining kilogram must sell for about Tk14.74 to match selling now after those costs and losses.
Illustrative assumptions: harvest price Tk10/kg; incremental carrying cost Tk4/kg of the original lot; physical loss 5%. Common sunk production costs cancel. Quality change, payment delay and price uncertainty are not modelled. Assumptions and limits (JSON)
06 / Route to Sale
How rice entered
procurement
Processed rice accounted for 77.5% of Boro 2025–26 public intake on a rice-equivalent basis, according to the Ministry of Food snapshot.
The snapshot runs through 2 September 2026. The Bagerhat moisture rule below comes from separate local reporting.
22.5%of rice-equivalent intake entered as paddy · Boro 2025–26
578,140 tonnes of paddy were received; at 65% rice equivalent that is 375,791 tonnes, 22.5% of the 1,671,058 tonne rice-equivalent intake. Processed rice made up 77.5%: 1,191,856 tonnes of parboiled rice (71.3%) and 103,411 tonnes of atap rice (6.2%).
22.5%Paddy route
77.5%Processed rice
- Paddy, at 65% rice equivalent
- 375,791 t · 22.5%
- Parboiled rice
- 1,191,856 t · 71.3%
- Atap rice
- 103,411 t · 6.2%
- Rice-equivalent intake
- 1,671,058 t
Source: Ministry of Food dated intake snapshot, via the figure source table. Shares rounded.
Physical intake shares, not budgets, margins, rejection or farmer exclusion. Paddy is converted at 65% rice equivalent; the denominator is 1,671,058 tonnes. Dated figure source table (CSV)
The moisture rule in Bagerhat
The Daily Star reported that paddy delivered in Bagerhat’s 2026 Boro drive had to meet a moisture limit of 14%. This local requirement does not explain the national intake split or establish how much paddy was rejected.
The Daily Star, 15 May 2026; Ministry of Food snapshot through 2 September 2026. Reading Room source notes
07 / Warehouse Finance
Borrowing against
stored crops
A lender may accept stored crops as security for a loan when the borrower, warehouse and receipt meet its requirements.
The farmer keeps ownership of the crop and takes on a debt.
Crop movesCash movesRecord or obligation
- 01
Store
The warehouse accepts an eligible crop lot.
Producer to WarehouseCrop lot
- 02
Verify
The warehouse records quantity and quality and issues a receipt.
Warehouse to ProducerReceipt records custody
- 03
Finance
The lender may lend against the crop if its conditions are met.
Lender to ProducerAdvance
The advance is the producer’s liability
- 04
Sell
The buyer pays for the stored crop.
Warehouse to BuyerReleased crop
Buyer to SettlementSale proceeds
- 05
Settle
Sale proceeds repay the lender and cover agreed charges.
Settlement to LenderRepayment
Settlement to Service providersCharges, to service providers
- 06
Balance
Any remainder returns to the producer.
Settlement to ProducerRemaining balance, if any
Possible shortfall: if proceeds do not cover repayment and charges, the producer still owes the difference
Settlement is an accounting step, not a fifth institution. Eligibility and release conditions remain those set by the warehouse and lender.
IFC and FAO describe this financing mechanism. Its availability, terms and effects for the wheat growers here have not been established; legal and lender requirements still apply. The receipt and repayment risks · IFC and FAO source notes
08 / Receipt and Repayment
The debt is
still due
The lender and service providers are paid from the sale proceeds before the farmer receives any balance.
If the sale falls short of the debt and charges, the farmer still owes the difference.
Illustrative specimen · not a valid receipt
- Depositor
- Producer / titleholder
- Commodity
- Stored crop
- Quantity
- Recorded at intake
- Condition
- Subject to warehouse acceptance
- Financing
- Subject to lender terms
- Charges
- Storage · handling · finance
No. 0000 · Example only
Two schematic cases. If sale proceeds exceed repayment and charges, the remainder returns to the producer as a balance. If proceeds fall short, part of the repayment and charges is not covered and the producer still owes the difference. No quantities are shown.
- If proceeds cover the debtA balance returns to the producer.
- If proceeds fall shortThe producer still owes the difference.
Mechanism as described by IFC and FAO; no amounts are implied.
What the loan depends on
Eligibility
The borrower, crop, warehouse and receipt must be acceptable.
Repayment
The advance must be repaid under the agreed terms.
Charges
Storage, handling and finance costs accumulate under the agreed terms.
Loss
Quality and saleable quantity may change in storage.
Price
Sale proceeds may not cover debt and charges; a shortfall remains possible.
This explains a general financing arrangement. Local availability and terms in Jashore and Kushtia have not been established. Warehouse-finance references
09 / Productive Capacity
What the next
season needs
A household also needs land that can produce, water it can use and equipment or services it can call on.
Schematic: soil profile
Soil
The next crop depends on the soil left behind. Its condition needs to be assessed in the field.
Schematic: pump and water channel
Water
Water has to be accessible when planting decisions are made, at a cost the household can meet.
Schematic: two-wheel power tiller
Working assets
Machines must remain usable, or a service must be available to do the work when it is needed.
What one irrigation study found
IWMI reports 20–30% lower irrigation costs for the fee-for-service solar model studied in northwest Bangladesh, using 2021–23 observations and a summary published in January 2026.
This is irrigation cost, not whole-farm cost or an outcome for the wheat growers. The study reports no significant adjusted difference in water application.
IWMI reports irrigation costs 20 to 30 percent lower for fee-for-service solar than for diesel pumping: an index of about 70 to 80 against diesel at 100. This is irrigation cost only, not whole-farm cost.
Diesel pumping
100
Fee-for-service solar
70–80
Lighter band: the reported 20–30% range
Source: IWMI evidence summary, 7 January 2026. Irrigation cost only, not whole-farm cost or an outcome for the wheat growers.
10 / Services
Farm services
have a deadline
Farmers need drying, access to buyers and hired machinery at the right time and a known cost.
A pilot would need to test timing and cost alongside the operator’s ability to keep the service running.
A schematic timeline from harvest. A shaded window marks the period before the lot loses marketable quality. A service that arrives inside the window can be used; one that arrives after it is too late to protect the crop.
HarvestWindow: the lot keeps marketable qualityQuality at riskArrives in timeArrives too late
Schematic drawn from the timing conditions below; not a measured season.
Proposed pilot conditions · Tests for a future service, not evidence of existing access.
A pilot would need to track growers’ receipts after service charges, alongside operator costs and reliability.
11 / The Missing Record
The missing
household account
The records used here count different things at different times. They cannot establish how one farming household moved from production to the next planting.
That would require following the same consenting household across the season.
Four record lanes: crop records count districts by crop year; the household survey counts households in one survey period; procurement counts commodities by intake period; the enterprise census counts economic units in a census period. A connector that would follow one household breaks at every lane: these sources contain no linked household record.
Crop recordBBS · district × crop year2003–04 to 2024–25
Household surveyPPRC · household × survey periodFieldwork 8–31 May 2025
ProcurementMinistry of Food · commodity × intake periodBoro 2025–26, through 2 September 2026
Enterprise censusBBS · economic unit × census periodEconomic Census 2024, report March 2026
Marks show the unit each source counts; their number is schematicBroken connector: no linked household record across these sources
What a household study would need Proposed · not yet observed
Before production
Cash, debt, productive assets and household obligations.
After harvest
Income, stored crop, spending, repayments and choices available.
Next planting
Resources, liabilities, household needs and viable decisions still open.
Next planting returns to “before production” for the following season. Arrows show a proposed sequence, not an observed household history.
Cash, debt, usable resources and household wellbeing would be recorded separately for the same consenting household. Open the field checklist
12 / Coda
Enough left
to begin again
13 / Source Records
Behind the crop figures
The wheat figures begin with BBS district estimates of planted area and production.
Cultivera combines the two districts by crop year before calculating yield.
- Area
- 1,218 ha
- Production
- 4,630 t
- Yield · derived, production ÷ area
- 3.80 t/ha
4,630 t ÷ 1,218 ha ≈ 3.80 t/ha derived, rounded
Official source
BBS Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics 2025, district wheat estimate table for 2024–25.
How the series was assembled
Area and production are added across Jashore and Kushtia for each crop year. Yield is total production divided by total area. All 22 observations remain; missing values are not converted to zero.
Inspect district records (CSV) · Full method and limits · Downloads
14 / Reading Room
Reading Room
Download the figures, inspect the calculations and read the sources behind the article.
The notes distinguish recorded findings, worked examples and proposals.
Downloads
Retained Capital white paper8 September 2026 edition · PDFWheat annual series22 annual observations · CSVWheat district recordsSource records and validation flags · CSVHousehold chart figuresPPRC cited extract · CSVFigure source tableDated values, units and evidence boundaries · CSVHolding modelIllustrative assumptions and limits · JSONCalculation provenanceTransformations and source lineage · JSONAtlas geometry64 district paths · JSON
A proposed household study
The field checklist sets out what a future study would record before production, after harvest and at the next planting. It is a research proposal; the article does not report those observations.
Open the field checklistSource notes
Official records + household context
01Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics · crop records
The wheat series uses BBS district estimates from 2003–04 to 2024–25. Area and production are summed across Jashore and Kushtia before aggregate yield is calculated. The locator map uses all 64 exact paths in the Cultivera Atlas; highlight indicates location, not production intensity.
The crop records are official source data. Cultivera Crop Intelligence harmonises and presents them for comparison across crop years and geography.
02BBS · producer definitions
Income and Productivity of Small-Scale Food Producers Survey 2025, published June 2026. Pages 62–63 define agricultural revenue and net income; page 88 defines the preceding 12-month reference period. Revenue includes noncash output; net income excludes depreciation.
The definitions help distinguish production, revenue and income. They do not provide next-season cash for the households represented in the wheat record.
03BBS · rural economic units
Economic Census 2024, National Report, Volume I, March 2026. Table 5.4 reports the main source of capital by economic-unit type and locality.
The aggregate tables describe economic units rather than the crop-farming households in this investigation. They do not isolate farmers or agricultural service providers.
04PPRC · national household context
Economic Dynamics and Mood at Household Level in Mid-2025, national dissemination presentation dated 25 August 2025. Fieldwork ran 8–31 May 2025; 8,067 household interviews were completed. Slide 17 supplies income-group means; slide 41 supplies the reported financial-crisis incidence.
These are national survey results, not households linked to the wheat record. Group means are not every household’s balance, savings or retained capital. The cited slides do not report subgroup sample sizes or uncertainty intervals.
Models + mechanisms
05Waiting model
The displayed break-even later price is a worked example: (Tk10 sale now + Tk4 incremental carrying cost) ÷ 95% saleable crop remaining = Tk14.74 per kilogram remaining for sale. It is not a price forecast.
06Procurement route
The 14% moisture condition comes from reporting on Bagerhat’s 2026 Boro procurement drive. The national intake shares use a separate Ministry of Food snapshot through 2 September 2026 and convert paddy to rice-equivalent at 65%. Neither figure is a rejection rate.
07Warehouse finance
IFC and FAO references support the general mechanism: eligible commodities stored in an acceptable warehouse can secure financing through a warehouse receipt or equivalent arrangement. Legal, institutional and lender requirements vary.
This essay does not establish availability, terms, uptake or farmer impact in Jashore or Kushtia. IFC program description ↗ · FAO review (PDF) ↗
08Solar irrigation study
IWMI’s January 2026 evidence summary reports 20–30% lower irrigation costs for fee-for-service solar irrigation compared with diesel at study sites in northwest Bangladesh, using 2021–23 observations. It reports no significant adjusted difference in water application.
The range is irrigation cost, not whole-farm cost or an outcome for the wheat growers. IWMI evidence summary ↗
Publication + method
09Photography
Photographs provide documentary context; none depicts a surveyed household or a grower linked to the crop series. The preserved rice-drying archive photograph is by Azim Khan Ronnie, Dhamrai, 26 March 2019, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0. Other image credits are retained in their nearby captions or source metadata.
10Method and publication limits
The wheat series sums each year’s area and production across Jashore and Kushtia. Yield is combined production divided by combined area; each index uses 2003–04 = 100. Output is indexed production, not revenue. Display values are rounded; calculations use the source CSV’s full precision.
Analysis and visualisation by Cultivera Insights. Web edition revised on 16 October 2026. The downloadable white paper is the separate 8 September 2026 edition. Crop records cover 2003–04 to 2024–25; source publication dates are given in the notes above.
Observed records, reported context, derived figures, a worked example and proposed mechanisms keep distinct labels. Production evidence is not used to infer household earnings, liquidity or wealth. Documentary photographs are not treated as observations.
Derived figures retain their source values, units and calculation notes; uncertainty and missing observations remain visible.